How Common Is It to See a Grizzly Bear in Alaska? Understanding Your Chances and How to Maximize Them

How Common Is It to See a Grizzly Bear in Alaska?

Encountering a grizzly bear in Alaska is not an everyday occurrence for the average visitor, but it is certainly a distinct possibility and a highlight for many who venture into the Last Frontier. The simple answer is that while you might not see one on every corner, the chances are significantly higher in certain regions and under specific circumstances compared to most other places in the world. Alaska is, after all, home to a robust and healthy population of these magnificent creatures, representing about 98% of the grizzly bear population in the United States.

My own first trip to Alaska, years ago, was filled with a mix of awe and trepidation regarding grizzly bears. I’d seen them in documentaries, of course, but the reality of sharing space with such powerful animals was a different prospect. We spent a week exploring the Kenai Peninsula, and while we saw plenty of black bears—which are more numerous and often more habituated to human presence in some areas—the elusive grizzly remained just that: elusive. It wasn’t until we ventured further inland, specifically into Denali National Park, that we finally had our sighting. It was a breathtaking moment, watching a large male amble across a tundra landscape, seemingly unfazed by our distant presence. This experience, and countless conversations with Alaskans and fellow travelers since, has solidified my understanding that seeing a grizzly bear in Alaska is a matter of location, timing, preparedness, and a healthy dose of luck.

This article aims to provide a comprehensive overview of how common it is to see a grizzly bear in Alaska, delving into the factors that influence these sightings and offering practical advice for those hoping to witness these apex predators in their natural habitat. We’ll explore the best locations, understand bear behavior, and discuss how to increase your chances while prioritizing safety.

Alaska’s Grizzly Bear Population: A Thriving Presence

To understand how common it is to see a grizzly bear in Alaska, we must first appreciate the sheer numbers and the vastness of their territory. Alaska is estimated to be home to between 30,000 and 50,000 grizzly bears, a stark contrast to the dwindling populations found in the lower 48 states. This robust population is a testament to Alaska’s expansive wilderness, extensive conservation efforts, and relatively low human population density in many key habitats.

Grizzly bears (Ursus arctos horribilis) are a subspecies of the brown bear found in North America. They are a symbol of the wild, and their presence is a vital indicator of a healthy ecosystem. Their distribution across Alaska is extensive, covering virtually all of the state except for the islands of the Alaska Maritime National Wildlife Refuge and the Aleutian Islands. This broad range means that while sightings are more likely in certain areas, they are by no means confined to a small, protected zone. They roam from the coastal rainforests of Southeast Alaska to the interior boreal forests and the rugged tundra of the Arctic.

Geographic Hotspots for Grizzly Bear Sightings

While grizzlies are widespread, certain regions in Alaska are renowned for their higher concentrations and more frequent sightings. These areas often share common characteristics: abundant food sources, suitable denning habitat, and less human disturbance.

Denali National Park and Preserve: This is arguably one of the most famous and reliable places to see grizzly bears in Alaska. The park’s vast size (over six million acres) and its protected status allow for a healthy bear population. The park’s road system, while limited, provides access to prime viewing areas. Visitors on bus tours, particularly those that go deeper into the park, have an excellent chance of spotting grizzlies foraging in the tundra, crossing rivers, or digging for roots. The open landscape of the park’s interior also makes bears more visible than in dense forests. My own successful sighting in Denali underscores its reputation. The rangers and bus drivers there are incredibly knowledgeable and skilled at spotting bears from a distance, often pointing out animals that a casual observer might easily miss.
Katmai National Park and Preserve: Famous for its salmon runs, Katmai is a premier destination for observing grizzly bears, particularly during the summer months. Brooks Falls, in particular, draws an astonishing number of bears who come to feast on sockeye salmon. The viewing platforms at Brooks Falls offer an unparalleled opportunity to watch bears fish, often at very close (though safely managed) distances. This is where you can witness truly iconic grizzly behavior. While “seeing” a grizzly here is almost a guarantee during peak season, it’s important to remember that these are wild animals, and safety protocols are strictly enforced.
Lake Clark National Park and Preserve: Located on the Alaska Peninsula, Lake Clark is another area with a significant grizzly population and abundant salmon streams. It offers a more remote and less crowded experience than Katmai but still provides excellent opportunities for sightings. Bear viewing tours often fly visitors to coastal areas or riverbanks where grizzlies are known to congregate.
Chugach National Forest: This expansive forest, encompassing a diverse range of habitats from coastal mountains to glacial valleys, supports a healthy grizzly population. Areas like the Kenai Peninsula, particularly in its more remote sections, and the Prince William Sound region can offer opportunities. However, sightings here might be more challenging due to denser vegetation in some areas.
Yukon-Charley Rivers National Preserve: For those seeking a truly wilderness experience, this preserve offers a chance to see grizzlies in a more remote setting. While less accessible than Denali or Katmai, the vast interior landscapes of this region are prime grizzly habitat.
Gates of the Arctic National Park and Preserve: As the northernmost national park in the United States, Gates of the Arctic is an immensely wild and remote area. Grizzly bears are a common sight here for those who venture into this pristine wilderness. Sightings are often made by hikers, backpackers, and those on river expeditions. This is a destination for the truly adventurous, where bear encounters are part of the immersive wilderness experience.

It’s crucial to remember that even in these prime locations, sightings are never guaranteed. Wildlife is unpredictable, and bears move based on food availability, mating seasons, and weather conditions.

Factors Influencing Grizzly Bear Sightings

Several key factors can influence your likelihood of encountering a grizzly bear in Alaska. Understanding these can help you plan your trip and manage your expectations.

Timing: The Seasons of the Bear

The time of year you visit Alaska can significantly impact your chances of seeing a grizzly bear. Each season offers different opportunities and challenges.

Spring (April-May): As the snow melts, bears emerge from their dens. They are often hungry and may be found near coastal areas or avalanche chutes searching for food. However, many interior areas are still snow-covered, and bears might be more concentrated in specific feeding grounds. Visibility can be an issue with lingering snow.
Summer (June-August): This is generally the prime season for grizzly bear viewing.

Early Summer (June): Bears are actively foraging after emerging from hibernation. They are often seen in meadows and on hillsides searching for new vegetation and insects. Salmon runs begin in some areas, drawing bears to rivers.
Mid-Summer (July): Salmon runs intensify in many coastal rivers, making places like Katmai and Lake Clark exceptionally good for viewing. Berries begin to ripen, providing another important food source in many habitats.
Late Summer (August): Bears continue to feed on berries and salmon. They are often seen along coastlines and in river valleys. This is a period of intense feeding as they prepare for hibernation.

Fall (September-October): As the weather cools, bears are in their final push to gain weight. They may be more active in areas with late-season berries or salmon. However, as they prepare for hibernation, they may become more reclusive. Denning sites are also becoming important, leading to shifts in their distribution. While possible, sightings might be less frequent as they prepare to den.

From my perspective, summer, particularly July and August, offers the most consistent opportunities, especially if you are focusing on areas with significant salmon runs or berry production.

Habitat and Food Availability

Grizzly bears are opportunistic omnivores, and their presence in any given area is heavily influenced by the availability of food. They have a diverse diet that includes:

Vegetation: Roots, grasses, sedges, berries (blueberries, cranberries, salmonberries), and various plants make up a significant portion of their diet, especially in the spring and summer.
Insects: Grubs and ants are a protein-rich food source.
Fish: Salmon are a critical food source in coastal and riverine environments, particularly during spawning seasons.
Mammals: Rodents (ground squirrels, marmots), moose calves, caribou calves, and occasionally even adult ungulates can be prey.
Carrion: Bears are also scavengers and will readily consume carcasses left by other predators or scavengers.

Areas with abundant berry patches, active salmon streams, and healthy populations of rodents or ungulates will naturally support higher numbers of grizzlies and, consequently, offer better viewing opportunities. This is why places like Katmai, with its famous salmon runs, are so renowned.

Human Activity and Bear Behavior

Grizzly bears are wild animals, and their behavior can be significantly influenced by human presence. In general, grizzlies are more wary and elusive than their black bear cousins. They tend to avoid human settlements and heavily trafficked areas.

Remote Areas: Sightings are more common in remote, wilderness areas where bears have fewer encounters with humans.
Habituation: In some limited areas, bears may become somewhat habituated to human presence, particularly in well-managed parks where they associate humans with food rewards (which is why strict food storage regulations are paramount). However, true habituation can lead to problematic human-bear conflicts.
Human Disturbance: Bears will often move away from areas with high human activity. This is why designated trails and viewing areas are important for both visitor safety and bear well-being.

It’s vital to remember that even a seemingly “calm” bear is still a wild animal capable of rapid and unpredictable movements. Maintaining a safe distance is always the utmost priority.

Weather and Visibility

Weather conditions can play a significant role in both bear activity and your ability to see them.

Good Weather: On clear, sunny days, bears may be more active and visible, especially in open country like tundra or meadows.
Bad Weather: During rain, fog, or heavy snow, bears may seek shelter, making them harder to spot. Conversely, after a rain, they might be more active foraging for insects and roots.
Visibility: Dense forests can limit visibility, making it harder to spot bears even if they are nearby. Open landscapes, such as those found in Denali’s interior, greatly improve the chances of spotting wildlife.

Maximizing Your Chances of Seeing a Grizzly Bear

While luck plays a part, you can significantly increase your odds of a grizzly encounter by employing strategic planning and understanding bear behavior.

Choosing the Right Location and Tour

As discussed earlier, certain locations are inherently better for grizzly viewing. If seeing a grizzly is a top priority, focus your trip on these areas.

Denali National Park: Opt for a full-day bus tour that goes deep into the park (e.g., to Eielson Visitor Center or beyond). These tours are guided by knowledgeable drivers who are trained to spot wildlife. Early morning and late afternoon tours often have higher activity.
Katmai National Park: Book a bear-viewing tour that focuses on Brooks Falls during the peak salmon run (typically July and early August). Be prepared for crowds at the popular viewing platforms. Alternatively, explore less crowded coastal bear viewing lodges which offer flightseeing and guided bear walks.
Lake Clark National Park: Similar to Katmai, flightseeing tours to bear viewing lodges or coastal areas are the most effective way to access this prime habitat.
Guided Tours and Safaris: Consider booking guided tours specifically designed for wildlife viewing. Local guides have invaluable knowledge of bear territories, behavior, and the best times and places to observe them safely. These tours often use specialized vehicles or boats and have experienced guides who prioritize safety while maximizing viewing opportunities.

When selecting a tour operator, look for companies with a strong reputation for responsible wildlife viewing, experienced guides, and a commitment to safety.

Timing Your Visit Wisely

As detailed in the “Factors Influencing Sightings” section, summer months, particularly July and August, generally offer the highest probability of seeing grizzly bears across various habitats. If your primary goal is to see bears fishing for salmon, then timing your visit to coincide with peak salmon runs is essential.

Understanding Bear Behavior and Signs

Knowing how to read the signs of bear presence can be just as important as knowing where to look.

Tracks: Grizzly bear tracks are large and distinctive. They have five toes, and the claw marks are usually visible in front of the toe pads. The hind footprint is similar to a human’s, but the front footprint is wider. A key differentiator from black bears is that the claw marks are typically much farther from the toe pads in grizzlies than in black bears.
Scat (Droppings): Bear scat can vary greatly depending on their diet. Look for large, often cylindrical droppings that may contain undigested berries, fur, or grass. The presence of scat indicates that bears are active in the area.
Diggings: Grizzlies are powerful diggers, especially when searching for roots or small mammals. Look for areas where the ground has been disturbed, with overturned sod or soil.
Hair: Bears can leave behind coarse guard hairs caught on bushes, fences, or tree bark.
Carcasses: If you come across a carcass, it may be a sign of a recent kill by a predator, and bears could be in the vicinity. Maintain extreme caution.

Learning to identify these signs can alert you to bear presence, allowing you to take appropriate precautions or, perhaps, observe from a safe distance if the opportunity arises.

Being Prepared and Practicing Safety

Seeing a grizzly bear is an incredible experience, but safety must always be the top priority. Alaska is bear country, and preparedness is non-negotiable.

Essential Safety Practices:

Carry Bear Spray: This is arguably the most important safety item. Bear spray (pepper spray designed for bears) is highly effective when used correctly. Know how to access it quickly (on your hip or chest holster) and practice drawing it. Understand its effective range and how to deploy it.
Make Noise: Especially in areas with limited visibility (dense brush, blind corners), make noise to avoid surprising a bear. Talk loudly, sing, or clap your hands periodically. Bear bells are generally considered less effective.
Travel in Groups: Hiking or traveling in groups of three or more is statistically safer. A group is more likely to make noise and appears more intimidating to a bear.
Be Aware of Your Surroundings: Constantly scan your environment. Look for bear signs. Avoid wearing headphones that block out ambient noise.
Never Feed Bears: This is crucial. Feeding bears, intentionally or unintentionally (by leaving food scraps), leads to habituation, which is dangerous for both bears and people. Store all food securely in bear-resistant containers or hang it properly.
Maintain a Safe Distance: Never approach a bear. Use binoculars or a telephoto lens for viewing. A general rule is to stay at least 100 yards (about the length of a football field) away from bears, and even farther from cubs.
Know What to Do if You Encounter a Bear:

If a bear has not seen you: Slowly and quietly back away, moving in the direction you came from. Do not run.
If a bear has seen you but is not approaching: Speak calmly and wave your arms to identify yourself as human. Back away slowly, avoiding direct eye contact, which can be perceived as a threat.
If a bear approaches: Stand your ground. Continue speaking calmly. If the bear continues to approach, prepare your bear spray.
If a bear charges: Use your bear spray when the bear is within the effective range (check your product’s specifications, typically 25-30 feet). Aim for the face.
If attacked by a grizzly bear: If the attack is defensive (the bear feels threatened, perhaps you surprised it), play dead. Lie flat on your stomach, protect the back of your neck with your hands, and spread your legs to make it harder for the bear to flip you over. Remain still until you are certain the bear has left the area. If the attack is predatory (the bear is stalking you and sees you as prey), fight back with all your might. Use any weapon available (rocks, sticks, your fists) and aim for the bear’s eyes and nose. This is a rare but critical distinction.

My own experience reinforces the importance of being prepared. Even though we saw a grizzly from a safe distance, carrying bear spray and understanding the protocols made me feel more confident and responsible while enjoying the wilderness.

Common Misconceptions About Grizzly Bear Sightings

There are several widespread myths about grizzly bears that can affect how people perceive the likelihood of seeing them and how they behave in bear country.

“Grizzlies are always aggressive.” While grizzly bears are powerful and can be dangerous, they are not inherently aggressive towards humans. Most attacks are defensive, occurring when a bear feels threatened, especially a sow with cubs. They generally prefer to avoid confrontation.
“You’ll see a grizzly everywhere in Alaska.” As we’ve established, while Alaska has a large population, sightings are concentrated in specific areas and depend on many factors. You are far more likely to see a black bear, especially near human settlements or along more accessible trails.
“Bear bells keep bears away.” Bear bells are generally not considered effective for deterring bears. Their quiet jingle can easily be masked by wind or other natural sounds, and bears may not even register them as a human presence. Making intentional noise (talking, singing) is far more reliable.
“Running from a bear will save you.” This is a dangerous myth. Bears can outrun humans by a significant margin. Running can trigger their predatory chase instinct. The recommended actions involve standing your ground, making yourself known, and backing away slowly.

Grizzly Bear Viewing Etiquette: Responsible Observation

Witnessing a grizzly bear in its natural habitat is a privilege, and it comes with a responsibility to observe ethically and safely.

Respect Their Space: Always maintain a significant distance. Never attempt to feed or bait bears. Observe their behavior from afar, using binoculars or zoom lenses.
Stay Quiet: Avoid loud noises or sudden movements that could startle or agitate the bears. Speak in a normal or slightly elevated tone.
Do Not Block Their Path: If a bear is moving through an area, give it a clear path. Do not get between a bear and its cubs or between a bear and its food source.
Be Mindful of Your Vehicle: If viewing from a vehicle, pull over safely and do not block traffic. Keep your vehicle windows up and doors locked.
Follow Park and Guide Instructions: Adhere to all rules and guidelines set by park authorities and your tour guides. They are there to ensure both your safety and the well-being of the wildlife.
Leave No Trace: Pack out everything you pack in. Do not leave any food scraps or garbage behind, as this can attract bears and lead to negative encounters.

Responsible viewing ensures that future generations can also experience the wonder of seeing grizzly bears in Alaska, and critically, it helps maintain the bears’ natural behaviors and habitats.

Frequently Asked Questions About Grizzly Bear Sightings in Alaska

How likely am I to see a grizzly bear if I visit Alaska?

Your likelihood of seeing a grizzly bear in Alaska depends heavily on where you go and what you do. If you stick to major cities like Anchorage or Juneau without venturing into the surrounding wilderness, your chances are quite low. However, if you plan to visit areas known for their grizzly populations, such as Denali National Park, Katmai National Park, or Lake Clark National Park, your chances increase significantly, especially during the summer months. Taking guided tours designed for wildlife viewing in these prime locations can virtually guarantee a sighting, or at least offer a very high probability.

For instance, a typical bus tour into Denali National Park has a very high success rate for spotting grizzlies, often with multiple sightings per trip. Similarly, bear-viewing tours to Katmai are almost certain to provide close-up views of bears, particularly during the salmon runs. It’s less about whether you *will* see a grizzly and more about *when* and *where* you choose to look. Even in less-frequented wilderness areas, while sightings might be rarer, they are still a real possibility for those who spend extended time outdoors and practice good bear awareness.

What is the best time of year to see grizzly bears in Alaska?

The best time of year to see grizzly bears in Alaska is generally during the warmer months, from late May through September. Each part of this window offers slightly different opportunities:

Late May and June: Bears are emerging from their dens and are actively foraging for new vegetation. They can be found in meadows and on hillsides. This is a good time for spotting them before the peak salmon runs begin. Visibility can sometimes be an issue with lingering snow in higher elevations.

July and August: This is considered the prime viewing season. Salmon runs are at their peak in many coastal rivers, drawing large numbers of bears to prime fishing spots like Brooks Falls in Katmai. Berries also begin to ripen, providing another significant food source. Bears are generally more active and visible during these months as they feed intensely to build up fat reserves for hibernation.

September: As fall approaches, bears are still actively feeding on late-season berries and salmon. They are preparing for hibernation, so their activity patterns might shift. While sightings are still possible, they may become less frequent as bears begin to den. The fall colors can also make for a spectacular backdrop for any wildlife sightings.

Ultimately, for the highest probability of sightings and witnessing iconic bear behaviors like fishing, targeting July and early August is often recommended.

Are grizzly bears dangerous in Alaska? How should I stay safe?

Grizzly bears are powerful wild animals and can be dangerous if they feel threatened or are surprised. However, they are not inherently aggressive towards humans and generally prefer to avoid encounters. Attacks are rare, and most are defensive in nature. Understanding their behavior and taking appropriate precautions is key to staying safe in bear country.

Essential Safety Measures:

Carry Bear Spray: Always carry bear spray and know how to use it. Keep it readily accessible.
Make Noise: Talk, sing, or clap your hands regularly, especially in areas with limited visibility, to alert bears to your presence and avoid surprising them.
Travel in Groups: Hiking or traveling in groups of three or more is safer.
Be Aware: Pay attention to your surroundings, look for bear signs (tracks, scat, diggings), and avoid wearing headphones.
Maintain Distance: Never approach a bear. Keep a minimum of 100 yards away. Use binoculars or a zoom lens for viewing.
Store Food Properly: Never leave food unattended or improperly stored. Use bear-resistant containers or hang food away from your campsite.
Do Not Feed Bears: This is critical for their safety and yours.

If you encounter a bear, the protocol generally involves speaking calmly, backing away slowly, and preparing your bear spray. If a bear charges, use your spray. If an attack occurs, know whether it’s defensive (play dead) or predatory (fight back). Educating yourself on these protocols before your trip is paramount.

How common is it to see a grizzly bear compared to a black bear in Alaska?

Grizzly bears are generally less common in terms of sheer numbers and distribution near human settlements compared to black bears in Alaska. Alaska is home to an estimated 30,000-50,000 grizzly bears and potentially even more black bears. While grizzlies occupy vast wilderness areas, black bears are more adaptable and can be found in closer proximity to towns, campgrounds, and popular hiking trails. Therefore, if you are visiting areas with significant human activity, you are far more likely to see a black bear than a grizzly bear.

However, this doesn’t mean grizzlies are rare in Alaska overall. In the vast, protected wilderness areas specifically managed for wildlife viewing, such as Denali or Katmai National Parks, the probability of seeing a grizzly bear can be very high, sometimes even higher than seeing a black bear in those specific locations due to the habitat and food sources that attract grizzlies. It really comes down to the specific location and how far you are willing to venture into wilder country. If your goal is to see a grizzly, you need to be in the right place at the right time.

Can I see grizzly bears from my cruise ship or along the coast?

Seeing grizzly bears directly from a typical cruise ship in Alaska is uncommon, though not impossible. Most major cruise routes follow coastal waters and inlets, which are indeed habitats for grizzly bears, especially in areas like Southeast Alaska. However, bears typically frequent shorelines, forests, and river valleys, and spotting one from the deck of a large ship can be challenging due to the distance and the dense vegetation along the coast.

Your chances are much better on smaller, expedition-style cruises or dedicated wildlife viewing boat tours that venture closer to shorelines, into fjords, or along river systems known to be frequented by bears. Some coastal areas, like those in Kenai Fjords National Park or parts of Prince William Sound, might offer opportunities if you are on a smaller vessel or a tour specifically targeting wildlife. However, for guaranteed or more frequent sightings, land-based excursions into prime grizzly habitats like Denali or Katmai, or flightseeing tours to remote bear viewing lodges, are generally more reliable options.

What should I do if I encounter a grizzly bear?

Encountering a grizzly bear can be a startling experience, but knowing how to react can ensure your safety. The primary goal is to de-escalate the situation and avoid triggering an aggressive response.

If the bear has not seen you:
Your first priority is to leave the area without the bear detecting your presence. Move away slowly and quietly in the direction you came from. Do not approach the bear to get a better look. If you are hiking, detour widely around the area.

If the bear has seen you and is aware of your presence but not approaching:
Identify yourself as human by speaking calmly and in a normal tone. Wave your arms slowly. Do not make direct eye contact, as this can be perceived as a challenge. Begin to back away slowly, continuing to speak calmly. Give the bear plenty of space and a clear escape route. Do not run.

If the bear approaches or charges:
Stand your ground. Continue to speak calmly and be ready to deploy your bear spray if the bear gets within range (typically 25-30 feet, check your specific spray’s instructions). If the bear makes contact and it appears to be a defensive attack (e.g., you surprised it, it’s protecting cubs or food), play dead. Lie flat on your stomach, protect the back of your neck with your hands, and spread your legs to make it harder for the bear to flip you over. Remain still until you are absolutely sure the bear has left the area. If the attack appears predatory (the bear is stalking you and sees you as prey), fight back with all your might. Use any available weapon—rocks, sticks, your fists—and aim for the bear’s eyes and nose. This distinction between defensive and predatory attacks is critical.

Always remember that your actions are crucial. Remaining calm and acting deliberately can significantly increase your safety.

The Intrinsic Value of Grizzly Bears in Alaska

Beyond the thrill of a sighting, grizzly bears hold immense intrinsic value within Alaska’s ecosystem and cultural landscape. They are apex predators, playing a critical role in maintaining the health and balance of the environments they inhabit. Their presence indicates a robust food web, from the insects and berries they consume to the large mammals they sometimes prey upon. Their digging activities can also aerate soil and distribute seeds, contributing to plant diversity.

Culturally, grizzlies are revered by Alaska Native peoples, featuring prominently in traditional stories, art, and spirituality. They represent strength, resilience, and the untamed spirit of the wilderness. For many Alaskans and visitors alike, the grizzly is a powerful symbol of the wild and a potent reminder of the importance of conservation. The fact that Alaska can sustain such a large and healthy population of these magnificent creatures is a testament to its vast, undeveloped landscapes and a commitment to preserving its natural heritage.

My own awe when witnessing a grizzly, even from a great distance, stemmed from this understanding. It wasn’t just seeing an animal; it was connecting, however briefly, with a force of nature that has shaped this landscape for millennia. The opportunity to see a grizzly bear in Alaska is not just a potential tourist attraction; it’s a chance to witness a vital part of the wild heart of North America.

In conclusion, while seeing a grizzly bear in Alaska isn’t as common as spotting a bald eagle or a moose in certain areas, it is a very real and achievable goal for those who plan their trip wisely. By choosing the right locations, timing your visit during the active seasons, understanding bear behavior, and most importantly, practicing rigorous safety protocols, you significantly enhance your chances of experiencing one of Alaska’s most iconic wild residents. The pursuit of this sighting is a journey into the heart of the wilderness, and the reward is an unforgettable encounter with a truly magnificent creature.

How Common Is It to See a Grizzly Bear in Alaska? Understanding Your Chances and How to Maximize Them